Annual Retention
Year-1 renewal projection for direct-annual subscriptions. In-progress cohorts are projected from the current auto-renew state, calibrated against the renewal rates actually observed in completed cohorts.
Platform
Country
Product class
Cohort window from
Calibration window
Retention basis
Refunds
Projection method
Cohort granularity
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Historical Y1 renewal rate
11.4%
Mean across 6 completed cohorts
Avg projected Y1 renewal
14.4%
Across 12 in-progress cohorts
Calibration set
6
Cohorts from 2024-12-01
Projected Y1 renewal by in-progress cohort
What fraction of each cohort is expected to still be subscribed at their year-1 renewal date.
June 2025
9.4%
380 subs · observed at d360
July 2025
14.5%
159 subs · observed at d330
August 2025
14.2%
221 subs · observed at d300
September 2025
16.5%
198 subs · observed at d270
October 2025
15.4%
367 subs · observed at d240
November 2025
17.1%
525 subs · observed at d210
December 2025
14.8%
502 subs · observed at d180
January 2026
16.9%
728 subs · observed at d150
February 2026
15.5%
467 subs · observed at d120
March 2026
14.0%
709 subs · observed at d90
April 2026
13.1%
319 subs · observed at d60
May 2026
12.0%
146 subs · observed at d30
% on auto-renew, by days since cohort start
Solid = completed cohort. Dashed = in-progress (line stops at current observation depth). Higher = more on track to renew.
December 2024
January 2025
February 2025
March 2025
April 2025
May 2025
June 2025
July 2025
August 2025
September 2025
October 2025
November 2025
December 2025
January 2026
February 2026
March 2026
April 2026
May 2026
June 2026
Cohort detail
Projected Y1 renewal is hatched for in-progress cohorts. Actual Y1 only shown once the cohort has crossed its renewal date.
| Cohort | Subscriptions | Currently on auto-renew | Projected Y1 renewal | Actual Y1 renewal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec '24 | 514 | 11.1%@d360 | 9.6% | 10.9% |
| Jan '25 | 653 | 13.6%@d360 | 11.8% | 11.0% |
| Feb '25 | 446 | 13.2%@d360 | 11.5% | 12.3% |
| Mar '25 | 448 | 15.0%@d360 | 13.0% | 12.5% |
| Apr '25 | 371 | 15.1%@d360 | 13.1% | 12.7% |
| May '25 | 291 | 11.3%@d360 | 9.8% | 9.3% |
| Jun '25 | 380 | 10.8%@d360 | 9.4% | — |
| Jul '25 | 159 | 22.0%@d330 | 14.5% | — |
| Aug '25 | 221 | 24.0%@d300 | 14.2% | — |
| Sep '25 | 198 | 30.8%@d270 | 16.5% | — |
| Oct '25 | 367 | 32.2%@d240 | 15.4% | — |
| Nov '25 | 525 | 40.4%@d210 | 17.1% | — |
| Dec '25 | 502 | 38.2%@d180 | 14.8% | — |
| Jan '26 | 728 | 48.8%@d150 | 16.9% | — |
| Feb '26 | 467 | 50.7%@d120 | 15.5% | — |
| Mar '26 | 709 | 52.2%@d90 | 14.0% | — |
| Apr '26 | 319 | 56.7%@d60 | 13.1% | — |
| May '26 | 146 | 61.6%@d30 | 12.0% | — |
| Jun '26 | 45 | — | — | — |